What Would You do if You WON?
By metysj+18 Did the $5 Mega Millions ticket quietly supercharge Powerball? A look at jackpot growth velocity
We charted jackpot growth across U.S. lotteries, and the results of the post-April 2025 price change for Mega Millions are becoming clear.
The Data:
- Before Change: Mega Millions (Blue) had a velocity of roughly +$11M/day during high jackpot runs.
- After Change ($5): The velocity dropped to +$6.8M/day for similar jackpot sizes.
- The Beneficiary: Powerball (Red) saw its velocity spike to +$18.5M/day in the same period.
Takeaway: It looks like the market didn't just "slow down" on Mega Millions; it seems like it actively substituted the cheaper good (Powerball). The $5 price point may have killed the "casual impulse buy" volume (the people who buy 10 tickets when the pot is huge) and pushed that liquidity into Powerball.
Interactive Chart: You can toggle different dates and see the velocity markers yourself here: https://luckypicks.io/us-state-lotteries/
Curious how others here read this.
Recent responses
+14 @AZBaldy Mega Millions totally overestimated how much money people are willing to spend on a ticket with shitty odds of actually winning the jackpot. I imagine many people did what I did at the price hike, stop buying Mega Millions and start buying tickets for my State based games, which in my case ended up being Fantasy 5. Same thing will happen if Powerball raises their price, it'll get dropped and I won't participate in any other national lotteries and will exclusively stick to my own State's smaller jackpot lottery games. There is a reason that jackpot runs can go as long as 6 months before someone finally wins, because the odds of winning are truly awful. Throwing away $1-$2 per drawing feels less egregious than $5.